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Capital Market Outlook

May 4, 2026

IN THIS ISSUE

  • Macro Strategy — No Two Oil Shocks Are Created Equal: Global growth has so far absorbed the Hormuz oil shock thanks to excess supply, rapid rerouting, and U.S. energy strength, but a prolonged conflict could turn a manageable disruption into a broader economic drag.

  • Market View — The Next Frontier: China's Rise as a Pharma Superpower: China is rapidly emerging as a global biotech powerhouse by leveraging state support, regulatory reform, scale, and talent, while deepening ties with Western pharmaceutical leaders.

  • Thought of the Week — Deal Activity Remains on Track in 2026: Global dealmaking started 2026 strongly, led by Artificial Intelligence-driven investment and resilient U.S. markets, though rising geopolitical risks, volatility, and shifting rate expectations could pose near-term challenges.​

 

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