After a year of volatility in the art market, 2025 ended on an optimistic note. Single-owner collections—particularly in the second half of the year—helped lift global sale totals at Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips to $4.55B, a 11.1% increase from 2024 and the first growth year since 2022.¹ Although that rebound stemmed largely from a surge in supply of works priced above $10MM, sales in the seven-figure range also rose, demonstrating a broader market recovery.

These indicators are promising, but the art market still faces headwinds in 2026. Last year’s auction totals trailed 2021 to 2023 levels, and small- to mid-tier galleries, specifically those offering emerging art, remain vulnerable—underscored by a number of high-profile gallery closures last year. Buyers are deliberate when it comes to quality, provenance, and art-historical significance. Sellers still appear cautious, relying more on auction guarantees and private sales than in previous years. Beyond the art trade, economic and political uncertainty imposed by escalating global conflict could further pressure collector confidence.

Nonetheless, last year’s results reflect a step in the right direction. Early tests in 2026 suggest this momentum is carrying into the spring season, with strong auction results for American art and Old Masters early in the year, lively activity at Frieze Los Angeles, encouraging mid-season contemporary sales in March, and robust year-on-year growth across London’s spring marquee auctions. Next up are the May auctions in New York, which will offer the clearest signal yet of whether 2026 is shaping up to be another year of art market growth.

1. The U.S. art market rebounds in 2025 and solidifies its position atop the global auction industry: The U.S. art market began 2025 on a cautious note. H1 sale totals slipped 5.6% year-on-year to $1.2B, the third consecutive first-half contraction. But major fresh-to-market consignments announced in the fall—namely single-owner collections such as the Ronald S. Lauder and the Cindy and Jay Pritzker collections—reenergized bidders and boosted supply of eight- and nine-figure lots. H2 results jumped 54% year-on-year, boosting year-end sale totals to $3.2B, up 23% from 2024. This sharp increase lifted New York’s global auction market share to 69%—the highest level recorded in the past ten years and a clear indication of its enduring global leadership. Importantly, the market recovery was not exclusively supply-driven: 53% of lots sold above their pre-sale estimates in 2025, compared to 48% in 2024, signaling improvements in bidder competition.

2. Sale volume declines in 2025 but shows long-term growth: The number of artworks sold at New York auctions declined 20% year-on-year in 2025, a cooldown from the peak in 2024. Nonetheless, sale volume still outpaced 2015 to 2022 levels, demonstrating a long-term upswing in market activity. Much of this growth has resulted from the lower end of the price spectrum. In 2025, artworks under $50,000 made up 61% of total lots sold, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 48% between 2015 and 2019. This shift towards a low-value, high-volume market has coincided with a broader number of artists represented at U.S. auctions, which has widened from 2,717 artists in 2015 to 3,315 in 2025. Lower-priced works and emerging artists play a critical role in attracting new collectors and expanding the market from the bottom-up.

3. Guarantees and single-owner sales become a foundational force in the U.S. market: The ascent of guarantees and single-owner sales are among the most important shifts in the U.S. auction landscape over the past decade. In 2016, guarantees backed 36% of the value of New York Evening Sales. By 2025, that figure had surged to 78%. Meanwhile, single-owner sales accounted for an average of just 7% of New York’s auction value between 2015 and 2020, versus 38% in 2025. These two trends reinforce one another: guarantees have become critical to auction houses for securing major consignments, particularly when courting collectors and estates with high quality, high value works (including the fully guaranteed collections of Paul G. Allen, 2022, and Leonard A. Lauder, 2025). Plus, a cooling art market in 2023 and 2024 has prompted less discretionary and opportunistic selling, creating a higher share of lifecycle-driven consignments with an emphasis on risk mitigation (guarantees), rather than upside capture. 

4. Historical names and trophy lots drive value, but lower-priced contemporary works dominate volume: Results among artist periods varied in 2025. Impressionist art rebounded sharply, with total sales rising 149% year‑on‑year. Much of this growth came from the $1MM+ segment, which jumped 173%. Modern art also strengthened by 35%. Similarly, price-to-estimate ratios were highest for Modern, Post-War, and Impressionist artists—in that order—demonstrating strong bidding for established names and a broader flight to quality. Despite falling below their estimates on average (an indicator of softening prices), Contemporary and Young Contemporary works made up 43% of lots offered. This impressive concentration stems from the category’s lower relative price points: in 2025, 94% of auction transactions occurred below $1 million, with a substantial share coming from younger names.

5. Strong shifts in regional art spending create new market hubs: Although U.S. auctions and gallery shows continue to revolve around New York, the Northeast has lost considerable regional market share over the last decade, particularly in the $1MM+ segment. In 2015, Northeast buyers accounted for over half of art purchases above $1MM. By 2025, that share declined to 32%. Importantly, this trend reflects faster growth among other regions, rather than a contraction of Northeast art spending. The West doubled its share of $1MM+ purchases from 15% in 2015 to 31%; the Southeast, mainly Florida, tripled its market share from 10% in 2015 to 30% in 2025; and the Central South—led by Texas—grew from a negligible 1% share of $1MM+ purchases in 2015 to 7% in 2025. This growth stems from both the post-pandemic migration of ultra-high-net-worth households from blue states like New York to Sunbelt states, many of which boast tax incentives, as well as growing galleries, fairs, and institutions. 

Interested in learning more about selling your art and collectibles? Bank of America offers Consignment Services for qualified collections, helping collectors navigate the complexities of auctions and private sales, every step of the way.

Andrew Wyeth, son of the celebrated illustrator N. C. Wyeth and father to painter Jamie Wyeth, stands at the center of an American artistic dynasty, one that helped shape the nation’s visual imagination for more than a century. Wyeth’s upbringing in an extraordinarily creative household left a deep mark on his artistic style, rooted in exacting technique and emotional restraint. He worked largely in isolation across rural Pennsylvania and coastal Maine, forging his own quiet yet powerful realism that forever changed the trajectory of American art.

In an era increasingly defined by rapid cultural shifts, Wyeth resisted new trends while revealing the richness of the everyday. He had mastered one of the most the demanding of mediums—egg tempera—using it to build luminous, layered surfaces. On the Edge, a standout from his late career, expresses the solitude of an island in Maine. The dark jacket and oversized boots emphasize the slight frame of the subject, who turns away to stare at the far horizon, while the threatening clouds on the left cast an ominous mood over the scene. Wyeth’s rendering of the textures of the rocks and other surfaces is complex and richly detailed, capturing the solid yet fragile nature of an island in the sea. With its pared-down composition and heightened stillness, the painting reflects a mature artist refining his vision to its most essential components—where gesture, light and detail carry profound psychological weight.

Wyeth’s visual language often centered on charged landscapes and evocative interiors, but by the 1990s and early 2000s, he increasingly explored moments poised between presence and absence. On the Edge exemplifies this evolution. Its tightly controlled geometry and subtle interplay of textures create a sense of suspended time. While some viewers detect a quiet unease, a threshold moment rendered with meticulous calm, others see a meditation on solitude, sharpened by Wyeth’s lifelong immersion in the rhythms of rural life. The duality is intentional; the painting hovers between clarity and mystery, its narrative unfolding slowly.

For Andrew Wyeth, his intention was to pursue, in his words, “the truth behind the ordinary.” On the Edge embodies this philosophy, inviting viewers to engage with its surface and sub-surface meanings—each level of emotional resonance exposed one tempera layer at a time. 

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